With the tennis season being over for another few days, the horse racing enthusiasts amongst our ranks (although it’s a sport we’ll always aim to refrain from tipping on, due to the inconsistency of it from a profit perspective) asked us if we had any fancies from the racing world, to keep them ticking over. It was a very cold & miserable Wednesday winter morning, but TSA quickly lifted punters’ spirits before they jumped in their cars to make the early morning drive to the workplace, informing them of a very tasty 4FOLD accumulator at the races, which was expected to turn a very nice profit indeed.

As always, and mainly due to the nature of the sport, it was only advised as a very conservatively staked wager, just to keep clients ticking over nicely until this evening, where we move over to Buenos Aires to watch Kyrgios square off against native JMDP in the tennis world.

By the close of play, and with punters stepping back in from the cold from the office around 6PM, all were licking their lips to find, when they’d logged into their online bookmakers’ accounts, that the first 3 legs of the 4FOLD had landed – the first @ 6/4, under a fabulous ride by Kirby on DUTIFUL SON, the second @ 11/10 under a thoroughly professional & progressive ride by supremely talented jock Sean Levey on a nag aptly named DASH OF SPICE, and the third leg @ 4/5 under a very front-running ride from the often frustrating mount of Spencer.

So there we were, just one last leg to run to land us all with an excellent profit – BUT do we take advantage of the cashout option on the table, SIZEABLE as it was, or do we ‘risk it for a biscuit’ and ‘let it run’ – a term synonymous with your ‘standard punter’, who you’re more likely to find stumbling around your local sports bar checking his bets on his mobile, than being in any sober, lateral thinking, state.

Of course, the big catch 22 conundrum when punting professionally and making a long-term profit from sports betting, is knowing when to pull the trigger on the cashout and when to risk it, and leave it.

Naturally, a lot of it depends on how much you’ve staked on the bet – if you’ve backed it with a heavy wager, arguably it would be better to pull that (cashout) trigger, whereas if you’ve only stuck a few pennies on the bet in the first place, which you can do without, then a case could be made to let it run to the last; it’s the battle of the ‘high risk/high reward’ vs ‘profit is profit/slow & steady’ mentality.

Whichever decision you make, we feel it should always be based ONLY on your own personal circumstances – are you cash-strapped, in real need of the money, or are you a financially sound, big hitting punter, that only placed the bet for the fun that sports betting brings so many.

HOWEVER, there is one thing punters must NEVER lose sight of; which is that the bookies’ introduction of cashouts, it is well debated & often argued, was only ever a decision made to provide them with collateral, in the hope they can recoup potentially huge losses, on big accumulators such as these. Are they only limiting their exposure to what would be even worse losses to punters on the day? Those in the know have always said a HUGE, resounding YES.

So, getting back onto topic, there we were, with one last horse to run, the heavily fancied ENFOLDING (trained under J R Fanshawe) – the pro’s? Firstly, it was under the mount again of previous winning jock for us, Adam Kirby. Secondly, the nag had won it’s previous two runs, and so was seeking the hattrick. Thirdly, it had seemingly been ‘thrown in’ by a trainer who’m is notorious for his shrewdness in finding his runners the perfect opportunities to run their races to suit. And finally, the horse had been supported in the market since opening the night before. There were so many positives to adopt the ‘risk it for a biscuit’ approach.

But our team didn’t like the two negatives we identified – significantly, the fact it was returning from a 200+ day break heading in (had it been struggling on the gallops at home or even picked up a niggle after its last win it was struggling to run off?).

With total conviction, we advised the cashout to clients in advance as a result – and here are the results!

-TSA Team-

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